The White House announced today that President Obama will swing by the much hyped COP 15 climate change meeting taking place in Copenhagen, Denmark (the COP in COP 15 is an acronym for “Conference of Parties”, the highest body of the United Nations Climate Change Convention which meets on an annual basis). On the way to picking up his Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo on December 10th, the President will stop by the international climate summit on the 9th, near the beginning of the 12 day meeting. He will tell the delegates that “the United States intends to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions ‘in the range of’ 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 and 83 percent by 2050,” according to the New York Times.
As with complex international trade negotiations, breakthroughs at these enormously complex summits with hundreds of participants often come near the end of the meeting, when everyone is tired, frustrated, and pressure to compromise and make deals is at its highest. It is at these times at least some agreement comes into form to act as a “deliverable” from the negotiations. This is likely to happen in Denmark in a few weeks. While Obama’s attendance is important for symbolic reasons, the devil is in the details and in the arduous negotiations that will take place after he has left. However, with an incomplete Cap and Trade bill still working its way through the Senate, the U.S. may be short on legitimate action to back up its talk and may not have the domestic support to bring real impetus to the discussions.

Many have predicted that the talks in Copenhagen will end in failure. While a binding international treaty to reduce greenhouse gases may not be reached, the world is already moving on its own toward a greener future. States like California are taking their own initiative to get things moving on the “sub-national” level by paying other areas like Amazonas in Brazil to preserve their forests. The current shift to a new energy system is an unprecedented international undertaking. It will not happen over night and we are not even sure of the best way to make the transition. With multiple options all being pursued (emission reductions, renewable energy, new technology, reforestation, green building etc.), there is no reason to be pessimistic about our energy future. Even without a success in Copenhagen, politics, economics, and public support are all now at the point where green and clean energy will continue to advance.

- Justin Manger

[Photo credit: Jason Lee/Reuters-Landov]