by Josh McKearin, Guest Author

The New York Times has an article about the possible “failure of success” should human beings manage to complete a second green revolution that allows them to produce abundant, cheap, and clean energy. As the article states, “we could, in essence, vastly increase the carrying capacity of the planet. Fossil fuels were a big part of the growth spurt from 1 billion to nearly 7 billion people in two short centuries. On a finite planet, where would limitless energy, combined with humanity’s infinite aspirations, take us?”

Consensus as to Earth’s carrying capacity for humanity is elusive, as adaptation and innovation are ever changing. If 2 billion is the tipping point, how close is the cliff? If 7 billion is within the bounds, what’s the limit?

Livable space and resources on Earth are finite; there will be a wall. And, with the time between adding another billion consumers shrinking, it’s likely to come much sooner than later.

1830 – 1 billion people; beginning of humanity until 1830

1927 – 2 billion; 97 years (post-1910’s influenza global pandemic/afterWWI)

1960 – 3 billion; 33 years (after WWII, Holocaust, Korean War)

1974 – 4 billion; 14 years

1987 – 5 billion; 13 years

1999 – 6 billion; 12 years

2008 – 6.6 billion; 9 years

History.com

If one accepts that technological adaptation can only take a population so far, and barring humanity voluntarily addressing our procreation tendencies/urges, there are only 3 solutions to prevent reaching a point at which starvation, war, or squalor adaptation (“Soylent Green” comes to mind) become the global norm:

1) Catastrophe: meteor, pandemic, something horrifically monstrous

2) Enforced population limits (more likely as time passes; China’s population growth projections indicate a sizable drop in the 2050’s due to their 1 child policy; I don’t think it unreasonable to conceive of another, albeit smaller, soon thereafter as Chinese culture prizes male children; limited procreation capacity)

3) Emigration and/or mining via the space program

Historically, our generation will either become the greatest, or the one that couldn’t meet the greatest tests ever faced.

- Josh McKearin is an international energy analyst. The opinions expressed here are solely the author’s and do not represent that of any government, business, organization or institution affiliated with the author, in the past, present, or future, and should not be construed as such.